President Hillary is Inevitable
By Jerome Grossman
Now that Hillary is really inevitable, the professional pundits are protecting their careers by opining that her election is not inevitable. But if you want to bet on Hillary going all the way, the legal bookies in Ireland will pay you only one dollar for every two bet: she is the odds-on favorite. Possessing a magic name, the best organization, the most experienced managers, the most connections to the biggest donors, her main weakness was her unfavorability rating hovering at 48 -- 49%. How could she be elected when half of the voters didn't like her? That barrier has been broken: the negative number is down to 37, where most politicians are. Americans learn to love front runners, to admire success.
To cinch the case, here are poll numbers conducted in late September by ABC News / Washington Post, covering just about every personal and issue valuation of the three top Democratic candidates. No need to analyze the Republicans. In my book, any Democrat nominated for President will defeat any Republican. It's all over folks.
Regardless of who you support, who do you think ___?
(Dems) HRC Obama Edwards
Is the strongest leader 61% 20% 13%
Is the most honest and
Trustworthy 35 26 22
Has the best chance of
Getting elected 57 16 20
Is best able to reduce
partisanship in D.C. 42 20 24
Best reflects the core
VIs the most inspiring 41 37 14
Regardless of who you support, who do you trust most to handle ___?
(Dems) HRC Obama Edwards
The war in Iraq 52% 22% 17%
The U.S. campaign
Against terrorism 51 20 19
The economy 56 17 17
Healthcare 66 15 14
Corruption in gov’t 40 28 20
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3 comments:
Jerome,
There is one factor affecting Hillary's viability as a candidate that has not been widely discussed, and that is her husband Bill's extra-marital activities over the past few years. If the Repubs wait until she is the nominee and then leak the unseemly details, she could be in trouble going up against squeaky-clean Mitt.
On my blog I opine that Iraq is very likely to look significantly more successful before the '08 elections come along.
This will change the dynamics of the elections and at least partially diminish the anti-GOP groundswell we are now experiencing.
The Dems had better have a strategy if Iraq improves markedly.
--cognitorex--
Jerome? Where is your blogroll?
HA, my GOD were you wrong!
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