Saturday, March 12, 2011

Oil or Israel or Both

When Egyptian youth began their occupation of the Cairo square, it was difficult for the Israeli public to take it seriously. They knew that the Egyptian army dominated the government, that the so-called dictator Hosni Mubarak served at army pleasure. One of the most popular jokes circulating in Israel during the first outburst of protest in Egypt read "Dear Egyptian Rioters, Please don't damage the pyramids. We will not rebuild."
Israel's seeming indifference in the current continuing crisis is matched by its indifference to popular outrage in almost every nation over its 44 year occupation of the West Bank territories once controlled by Palestinians. This indifference was sustained by its belief that authoritarian Arab regimes would keep their subjects’ rage in check and that the survival of the authoritarian Arab regimes would be defended under the United States security umbrella for geopolitical reasons and especially for the continuity of the oil business. The deference to the US was responsible for the stability of Egypt's and Jordan’s peace accords with Israel.
This functioning of power reaches beyond the limits of representative democracy into sanctified areas of corporate profits, national income and world hegemony. Hosni Mubarak is out of power but Israel may once again become the pariah nation in the region. If democracy becomes a way of life there, at least one of the nascent political parties will make demands of Israel. A change of government in Egypt, still undetermined, is likely to undermine Israel's strategic situation, even the degree of US support, as America might be forced to choose between Israel and the wildly profitable flow of Arab oil.

1 comment:

an average patriot said...

That is funny Jerome! You can bet they would rebuild the Pyramids in some way or anything else damaged as it and tourism is a large part of Egypt's income.

The US has excellent ties with Egypt's military so as long as they pull the strings I think Israel is okay.

Elbaradei is running for President so you know if he is elected he will at least make demands on Israel's nuclear weapons that will be ignored so at worst I see status quo there.

Trouble is Egyptian's really want their Democracy but I believe they are a one and out for the region. The key is what happens in Libya.

If Kaddafi is allowed to murder his citizens to stay in power it will send the message to all the rest of the Middle Eastern and North African dictators that they to can use extreme brutality to stay in power.

That is unless they can bribe their citizens as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are.

As you know, in reality the middle east and Africa are not the reason for our oil prices it is our oil companies.

Their is no oil shortage only a built in bottle neck called oil refineries. A new refinery as not been built since the mid 70's and they will not be built using NIMBY or one excuse or the other unless Obama makes them build.

The excuse is cost and the shortage of land on the coast well fine build inland and portage is need be.

When all is said and done we knew years ago that gas had to hit $5 at the pump before it was economical to capture our shale oil reserves which = more than the world's entire supply.

That said, the average American will rebel but there is a place for them and they have still not realized that they do not matter.


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