Sunday, July 20, 2008

The U.S. and Israel on Iran

The U.S. and Israel on Iran
By Jerome Grossman

The United States of America and the State of Israel are the closest of allies, sharing intelligence, weapons, military research, among many other joint ventures. They support each other's policies at the United Nations and other international venues with only rare exceptions.

Policy on Iran may be one of those rare exceptions. Responsible Israeli officials have made their positions clear: Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons and Iranian protestations that their development of nuclear power is only for civilian electricity is not to be believed. Furthermore, that Iranian President Ahmedinejad's threat "to wipe Israel off the map" represents Iranian policy.

Some Israeli leaders want to launch a preemptive attack. Israeli official Shaul Mofaz said recently, "If Iran continues its program to develop nuclear weapons, we will attack it."

In a New York Times op-ed, July 18, 2008, Benny Morris, an influential moderate and former Israeli official warned, "Israel will almost surely attack Iran's nuclear sites in the next four to seven months."

Recently, the Israeli Air Force conducted a massive war game over the Mediterranean that was interpreted as a demonstration of Israeli ability to mount a serious and effective attack on Iranian installations.

However, US policy now seems to be headed in another direction. In the past, American policy placed Iran in the Axis of Evil, condemned it as a terrorist regime, passed a resolution in the U.S. Senate demanding regime change, appropriated money for Iranian dissidents, and refused to establish any diplomatic contact with the Iranian government.

Now, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates says, “We are not planning for a war with Iran,” Admiral Mike Mullen Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff supports him. Accusations of Iranian interference in Iraq have diminished. Most importantly, the Bush administration is planning to establish an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since Iranian extremists seized American hostages and occupied the US Embassy in Tehran in 1979.

Is the US sending a message to Israel not to attack Iran? Is the US sending a message to Middle East nations disassociating itself from an Israeli attack? Has US intelligence decided that the Israelis are serious in their threats?

The effects of an Israeli - Iran war would be world wide. The Muslim world would explode and attack western interests everywhere they could. Rulers of Muslim nations friendly to the west and clients of the US might be overthrown. The price of oil would probably reach $400 per barrel assuming that any oil at all would be shipped to the west. Worldwide energy shortages and commercial disruption would likely cause a financial collapse.

The stakes could not be higher, considering that Barack Obama told the US Israeli lobby AIPAC on June 4, "My goal will be to eliminate the threat (to Israel) posed by Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. (Pause) Everything. The pause is scary.

4 comments:

libhom said...

I think the Bush regime is pretending to take a more moderate course is that an attack on Iran would make gas prices skyrocket, as you point out. That would lead to the kind of political rebellion the GOP does not want.

Anonymous said...

It is simple bigotry that Iran is not being allowed to develop atomic weapons. Why shouldn't an Islamic hereditary theocracy be allowed to build I.C.B.M.s?

A nuclear middle-east will be a peaceful middle-east because of Mutually assured destruction. Mutually assured destruction kept the peace between the United States and the Soviet Union for decades.

Atomic bombs are defensive weapons because they make victory impossible for anyone.

Nuclear proliferation is going to happen sooner or later any way.
Technology always spreads. Gunpowder was invented by the Chinese, but now everyone has it. Even the most isolated illiterate tribesman carrys an assualt rifle when he goes to war.

In the future, every Mullah, Latin American Generalismo, and African Warlord will have the ability to hurl nuclear weapons at one another. But, they will also be threatened with the same thing comming back at them. War shall become obsolete and peace shall prevail.

It is racist to think that only educated democratically elected, western leaders can face the reality of mutually assured destruction and act reasonably.

After all, it's not like there is a history of sucide attacks in the Middle East

Christopher said...

“It seems that fear of the U.S. rather than Israel has been the main reason for Iran’s nuclear ambition. That is why the attractive idea of a nuclear-free Middle East, in which Iran would renounce nuclear weapons in exchange for a similar move by Israel, appears unrealistic. It is the U.S., not Israel, that Iranian hard liners want to deter, using Israel as a hostage. They see going nuclear as a way of limiting U.S. military and geopolitical involvement in the Middle East.”

http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/463503

an average patriot said...

Hi guys! With time running out for Bush his only concern is his legacy! The chief war mongering oil man wants to appear like he wants peace while it is war he has instigated! You know the plan to go after Iran is old. You know 9/11 and the Patriot Act were only to of the set ups to get oil control and war going.
like everything else today this gets very confusing and convoluted on purpose to hide a hidden agenda. now that Obama is in the mix and the world is behind him getting elected as well they should be if we are to have a future Bush has been changing his tune on Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Iran where a Diplomatic interest was expressed.
That is merely a facade! Nothing is going to be won by us as we conventionally think of as winning and nothing is going to stop the total middle east breakdown before it erupts into total war again under a facade of peace voraciously instigated by the Bush mis-Administration!
I do not know who fears who anymore and it no longer matters! You know I have said many times there will be war with Iran. There has to be to get this going full swing watch! I no longer believe the thought of President Obama is the time constraint of the attack.
If it does not look like the Right can steal this election cleanly too Israel may go after Iran first just so the chief war monger will be at the helm. That will be determined soon.
Food, gas and oil, will be rationed but as you know I have said before, knowing a nuclear Iran would to common sensed eyes mean a power balance in the middle east you have to come to the conclusion that is not wanted.
Israel will never accept a nuclear Iran and will attack. Whoever is President will come to their rescue! Once again war will occur to prevent war. That makes sense yeah!
Again as I keep saying, at one time the threat of mutual destruction use to be a deterrence. Today it seems to be the goal.
Originally a buffer for Israel was their goal and it played well with Bush's hidden agenda and if any message is being sent to Israel it is not going to matter or change our response.
Despite heroic efforts of the likes of you Jerry what is still just unfolding will be prevented by no one. We are in serious trouble here and I better shut up now. Take care!

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